Criciuma vs Londrina: Match Preview, Predictions and Betting Tips
Published on Thursday, 04 June 2026 by Steve
Criciúma vs Londrina EC
Brasileirão Série B Prediction & Betting Tips
Match Overview
The Brasileirão Série B continues its intense 2026 campaign as Criciúma welcome Londrina EC to the iconic Estádio Heriberto Hülse on Saturday evening. This fixture represents a critical juncture for both clubs, with Criciúma seeking to consolidate their position in the upper mid-table while Londrina desperately fight to escape the relegation zone. The 2026 season has been marked by unprecedented parity, with seven teams separated by just a handful of points at the top, and the battle at the bottom equally tight. For Criciúma, currently sitting in 9th place with 14 points from 10 matches, this home encounter offers an opportunity to build momentum and potentially break into the promotion conversation. Their record of 3 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses demonstrates a team that is difficult to beat but has struggled to convert draws into victories.
Londrina arrive in Santa Catarina under significantly more pressure, languishing in 18th position with just 8 points from 11 matches. Their record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 7 losses tells the story of a side that has found the step up to Serie B brutally challenging. The Paraná-based club has conceded 20 goals while scoring only 9, giving them the second-worst goal difference in the division at -11. Recent form has been particularly alarming, with four defeats in their last five outings including heavy losses to Operário Ferroviário (0-3) and Fortaleza (0-3). The appointment of Rogério Micale as head coach was intended to spark a revival, but the former Olympic champion has managed just two matches so far, recording one win and one defeat. This trip to Criciúma represents one of the most challenging assignments in the calendar, given the hosts' formidable home record and the psychological advantage of playing in front of their passionate supporters at the Heriberto Hülse.
The historical context adds another fascinating dimension to this encounter. These two clubs have met 16 times in competitive fixtures, with Criciúma holding a commanding advantage of 8 victories to Londrina's 2, with 6 matches ending in draws. The average goals per game in this fixture stands at 2.38, suggesting that while Criciúma have dominated the head-to-head, the matches have generally been competitive and entertaining. For the 2025/2026 season, both clubs have undergone significant squad transformations. Criciúma have strengthened their defensive unit with the acquisitions of Willean Lepo from Vitória and Léo Mana from Corinthians, while also adding creative midfielder Sandry from Santos FC. Londrina, meanwhile, have been active in the transfer market bringing in Caio Maia from Atlético Mineiro's youth system, André Cardoso from Athletico Paranaense U20, and experienced defender Gabriel Lacerda from Ceará. These squad changes reflect the different ambitions of the two clubs – Criciúma building for a promotion push while Londrina fight for survival.
Tactical Preview
Formation & Key Matchups
Criciúma 4-2-3-1
Under the guidance of Eduardo Baptista, Criciúma have established themselves as one of the most tactically disciplined sides in Serie B. The 4-2-3-1 formation allows them to maintain defensive solidity while providing attacking width through the full-backs and the creative trio behind the striker. The double pivot of Eduardo and Jean Irmer provides excellent protection for the back four, allowing the more advanced midfielders to express themselves. Baptista has emphasized a possession-based approach, with Criciúma averaging 48-52% possession in most fixtures, but they are equally comfortable playing on the counter-attack when facing stronger opposition. The key tactical battle will be how Criciúma's wide players, particularly Jhonata Robert and Diego Gonçalves, exploit the spaces behind Londrina's full-backs. Robert, with 5 assists this season, has been the team's chief creator and his ability to deliver quality crosses into the box will be crucial against a Londrina defense that has shown vulnerability to wide attacks. The central defensive partnership of Luciano Castán and Rodrigo Fagundes has been outstanding, with Fagundes earning a team-high rating of 7.42 for his performances this campaign.
Londrina EC 4-4-2 / 4-1-4-1
Rogério Micale has experimented with different formations since taking charge, oscillating between a traditional 4-4-2 and a more conservative 4-1-4-1 when facing stronger opponents. Given Criciúma's home strength and attacking quality, Micale will likely opt for the more cautious approach, with Chumbinho or André Luiz sitting deep to shield the defense. Londrina's tactical approach has been hampered by defensive frailties throughout the season – they have conceded an average of 2.2 goals per game in their last five matches, a statistic that would concern any manager. The back four, featuring Gabriel Lacerda and Heron as the central pairing, has struggled with organization and communication, particularly when facing quick transitions. Micale's challenge is to instill defensive discipline without sacrificing the attacking threat posed by Iago Teles, who has scored 8 goals this season and represents Londrina's primary offensive weapon. The wide areas will be critical – if Londrina's full-backs can contain Criciúma's wingers, they may have opportunities to counter-attack through the pace of Vitinho Mota and the intelligent movement of Bruno Santos.
Critical Vulnerability
Londrina's most significant tactical vulnerability is their inability to maintain defensive shape during transitions. In their 0-3 defeat to Operário Ferroviário and their 0-3 loss to Fortaleza, the team was repeatedly exposed by quick counter-attacks and through balls in behind the defense. Criciúma, with the pace of Diego Gonçalves and the intelligent running of Nicolas, are perfectly equipped to exploit this weakness. Additionally, Londrina have struggled significantly from set-pieces, conceding multiple goals from corners and free-kicks this season. Criciúma's delivery from wide areas, particularly from Jhonata Robert and the overlapping runs of Marcelo Hermes, could prove decisive. The aerial presence of Luciano Castán and the timing of runs from midfielders like Fellipe Mateus make Criciúma a potent threat from dead-ball situations. If Londrina cannot address these defensive issues, they risk being overwhelmed by the home side's multi-faceted attacking approach.
Team News & Squad Status
Criciúma 📊
- Eduardo Baptista has a near full-strength squad available for selection, with only long-term absentee Benjamin Borasi (knee) unavailable.
- Goalkeeper Alisson has been in excellent form, keeping 3 clean sheets in 10 matches with an average rating of 7.27.
- Defensive stalwart Rodrigo Fagundes (rating 7.42) anchors the backline and will be crucial against Londrina's counter-attacks.
- Top scorer Diego Gonçalves (10 goals) leads the line and will look to add to his impressive tally against a leaky Londrina defense.
- Creative midfielder Jhonata Robert (5 assists, 6 goals) is the team's primary playmaker and will be instrumental in unlocking Londrina's defense.
- New signing Sandry from Santos FC is pushing for a starting berth after impressing in training.
- Winger Nicolas (8 goals) provides an excellent secondary scoring threat from wide positions.
- The team is unbeaten in their last 5 matches (1 win, 4 draws), demonstrating excellent defensive organization with only 4 goals conceded in that period.
Londrina EC ⚠️
- Manager Rogério Micale faces a selection crisis with multiple defensive concerns ahead of this difficult away fixture.
- Top scorer Iago Teles (8 goals) is fit and represents the team's best hope of causing an upset at the Heriberto Hülse.
- Defensive midfielder Chumbinho will likely start to provide additional protection for the back four against Criciúma's attacking threat.
- Center-back Gabriel Lacerda, signed from Ceará, has struggled to adapt to Serie B pace and may face a stern examination against Criciúma's forwards.
- Loanee Vitor Jacaré from Red Bull Bragantino offers pace on the right wing and could be a threat on the counter-attack.
- The team has won only 1 of their last 5 matches, conceding 11 goals in that period at an alarming average of 2.2 per game.
- Forward Bruno Santos, signed from Juventude, has yet to find his scoring touch in Serie B and is under pressure to deliver.
- Londrina's away form is particularly concerning, with heavy defeats in recent road trips highlighting their struggles outside Paraná.
Predicted Lineups
| Criciúma 4-2-3-1 | Londrina EC 4-1-4-1 |
|---|---|
| Alisson (GK) | Maurício Kozlinski (GK) |
| Willean Lepo (RB) | André Dhominique (RB) |
| Rodrigo Fagundes (CB) | Gabriel Lacerda (CB) |
| Luciano Castán (CB) | Heron (CB) |
| Marcelo Hermes (LB) | Kevyn (LB) |
| Eduardo (DM) | Chumbinho (DM) |
| Jean Irmer (DM) | Lucas Marques (CM) |
| Jhonata Robert (RW) | André Cardoso (CM) |
| Fellipe Mateus (AM) | Iago Teles (LW) |
| Diego Gonçalves (LW) | Vitor Jacaré (RW) |
| Nicolas (ST) | Bruno Santos (ST) |
Head-to-Head Record
The historical rivalry between Criciúma and Londrina heavily favors the Santa Catarina side, who have established themselves as the dominant force in this fixture over the years. Across 16 competitive meetings, Criciúma have emerged victorious on 8 occasions, while Londrina have managed just 2 wins, with the remaining 6 encounters ending in draws. This gives Criciúma a win rate of 50% in this fixture, compared to Londrina's modest 12.5%. The goal statistics further emphasize Criciúma's superiority, with the home side scoring significantly more goals across these encounters. The average of 2.38 goals per match suggests that while Criciúma have been dominant, the games have generally been competitive affairs with both teams contributing to the entertainment. In recent seasons, this fixture has often been characterized by tight, tactical battles, with Criciúma's home advantage at the Heriberto Hülse proving particularly decisive.
The most recent encounters between these sides have followed a familiar pattern, with Criciúma controlling possession and creating the better chances while Londrina struggle to impose themselves away from home. The psychological advantage that Criciúma hold cannot be understated – knowing they have historically dominated this fixture gives the players confidence and belief, particularly when playing in front of their own supporters. For Londrina, breaking this historical trend will require a significant improvement in their away performance, something that has eluded them throughout the 2026 campaign. The head-to-head record suggests that if Criciúma can score first, they are highly likely to go on and win the match, as Londrina have shown little ability to fight back from losing positions this season. The 2.38 average goals per game indicates that this fixture typically produces goals, but given both teams' current form – Criciúma's defensive solidity and Londrina's struggles in front of goal – a lower-scoring affair may be on the cards this time around.
Key Players Comparison
Diego Gonçalves (Criciúma)
Position: Forward / Winger
Goals: 10
Rating: 7.24
Key Strength: Clinical finishing, movement off the ball
The 31-year-old has been in sensational form this season, leading Criciúma's scoring charts with 10 goals. His ability to find space in the box and convert half-chances makes him a constant threat. Against a Londrina defense that has conceded 20 goals in 11 matches and looks short on confidence, Gonçalves will fancy his chances of adding to his tally.
Iago Teles (Londrina)
Position: Left Winger
Goals: 8
Key Strength: Dribbling, long-range shooting
Londrina's standout performer and primary source of goals. The winger has carried the team's attacking burden for much of the season. If Londrina are to get anything from this match, Teles will need to produce something special. His pace and direct running could trouble Criciúma's full-backs.
Jhonata Robert (Criciúma)
Position: Attacking Midfielder / Winger
Goals: 6 | Assists: 5
Rating: 7.24
Key Strength: Creativity, set-piece delivery
The team's chief creator with 5 assists this season. Robert's vision and passing range unlock defenses, while his set-piece delivery is a potent weapon. His combination play with Gonçalves and Nicolas has been a key feature of Criciúma's attack this campaign.
Rodrigo Fagundes (Criciúma)
Position: Center-Back
Rating: 7.42
Key Strength: Aerial dominance, positioning
Criciúma's highest-rated player this season. The 39-year-old veteran brings experience and organizational qualities to the backline. His partnership with Luciano Castán has been the foundation of Criciúma's defensive solidity, conceding just 0.8 goals per game in their last five outings.
The individual matchups across the pitch will be fascinating to observe. In attack, Diego Gonçalves against Gabriel Lacerda and Heron represents a significant advantage for Criciúma. Gonçalves' intelligent movement and clinical finishing (10 goals this season) against a defensive pairing that has struggled for cohesion and confidence is a mismatch that could define the match. Similarly, Jhonata Robert's creativity against Londrina's defensive midfield screen will be critical – if Robert can find space between the lines, he has the quality to deliver the killer pass. For Londrina, all eyes will be on Iago Teles. The winger has scored 8 goals this season, accounting for a significant portion of his team's total output. If Teles can isolate Criciúma's full-backs and create opportunities for Bruno Santos, Londrina may yet pose a threat. However, the form book strongly favors the home side's key players, all of whom are performing at a higher level than their Londrina counterparts. The battle in midfield between Criciúma's experienced duo of Eduardo and Jean Irmer against Londrina's Chumbinho and Lucas Marques will likely determine the tempo and control of the match.
The Managers
Eduardo Baptista (Criciúma)
Eduardo Baptista has established himself as one of the most reliable coaches in the Brasileirão Série B, bringing a wealth of experience and tactical acumen to Criciúma. Appointed ahead of the 2025/2026 season, Baptista has transformed the team into a well-organized, tactically flexible unit that is difficult to break down and capable of hurting opponents in multiple ways. His record of a 45% win rate across 42 matches, averaging 1.67 points per game, demonstrates his ability to get the best out of his squad consistently. Baptista's philosophy centers on defensive solidity as the foundation for attacking success – he believes that a well-organized defense provides the platform for creative players to express themselves without fear of catastrophic failure. This approach has yielded excellent results, with Criciúma conceding just 9 goals in 10 matches this season, the third-best defensive record in the division.
Baptista's man-management skills have also been evident in his handling of the squad. He has successfully integrated new signings like Willean Lepo, Sandry, and Léo Mana into the team while maintaining the core of players who achieved promotion from Serie C. His ability to rotate the squad effectively without losing tactical coherence has been crucial during the congested fixture schedule. Against Londrina, Baptista will likely stick with the 4-2-3-1 formation that has served the team well, trusting his players to execute the game plan against a side that has shown vulnerability to organized, patient football. The coach's experience in Brazilian football, having previously managed clubs like Ponte Preta and Sport Recife, means he understands exactly what is required to navigate the challenges of Serie B. His calm demeanor and tactical intelligence make him the ideal man to guide Criciúma through the promotion push.
Rogério Micale (Londrina EC)
Rogério Micale faces one of the most challenging assignments in Brazilian football – keeping Londrina competitive in Serie B while rebuilding a squad that has struggled badly in the early stages of the season. The former Brazil Olympic gold medal-winning coach (Rio 2016) arrived with a reputation for developing young talent and implementing attractive, attacking football, but the reality of Londrina's situation has forced a more pragmatic approach. With just two matches under his belt so far (one win, one defeat), Micale is still in the early stages of imprinting his philosophy on the team. His win rate of 50% in those two games is encouraging, but the sample size is too small to draw meaningful conclusions. The 0-3 defeat to Fortaleza in his second match highlighted the scale of the task facing the 55-year-old coach.
Micale's challenge is compounded by the fact that Londrina have been unable to establish any defensive consistency throughout the campaign. The team has conceded 20 goals in 11 matches, the second-worst record in Serie B, and Micale must address this issue urgently if the club is to avoid relegation. His tactical flexibility – shown by his willingness to switch between 4-4-2 and 4-1-4-1 formations – suggests a coach who is searching for the right balance rather than one with a clear, settled approach. Against Criciúma, Micale will need to decide whether to prioritize defensive solidity at the expense of attacking ambition or trust his forwards to outscore the opposition. Given Criciúma's defensive record and Londrina's struggles in front of goal, the former approach seems more sensible, but Micale's natural instincts may lean towards a more positive approach. The next few weeks will be critical in determining whether Micale can turn Londrina's season around or whether the club will be drawn into a relegation battle that extends deep into the second half of the campaign.
Betting Predictions & Tips
Odds: 1.69
Criciúma's formidable home record, combined with Londrina's dreadful away form and defensive frailties, makes a home victory the most logical outcome. The hosts have been unbeaten in their last five matches, demonstrating excellent defensive organization with just 0.8 goals conceded per game in that period. Londrina, meanwhile, have lost four of their last five and conceded 11 goals at an average of 2.2 per game. The head-to-head record also strongly favors Criciúma, who have won 8 of the 16 meetings between these sides. At odds of 1.69, this represents solid value for a team that has shown consistent quality at the Heriberto Hülse. The European odds reflect the market's confidence in a home win, and the statistics fully support this assessment. Criciúma's attacking trio of Gonçalves, Nicolas, and Robert should have too much quality for a Londrina defense that has looked vulnerable all season.
Odds: 1.85
While the historical average for this fixture is 2.38 goals per game, the current form of both teams suggests a tighter, lower-scoring affair. Criciúma have been involved in several low-scoring draws recently (0-0 with Juventude, 1-1 with Cuiabá, 1-1 with Atlético-GO), demonstrating their ability to control matches without necessarily blowing opponents away. Their defensive record – just 9 goals conceded in 10 matches – is one of the best in Serie B. Londrina have struggled massively in attack, scoring only 9 goals in 11 matches, and their confidence in front of goal is at a low ebb. With Criciúma likely to dominate possession and Londrina setting up defensively under Micale, the conditions are ripe for a match with fewer than 2.5 goals. The odds of 1.85 offer excellent value given the tactical dynamics at play.
Odds: 2.40
This is a speculative but potentially rewarding selection based on Criciúma's defensive excellence and Londrina's attacking impotence. The hosts have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches this season, while Londrina have failed to score in 5 of their 11 league games. Criciúma's backline, marshalled by the outstanding Rodrigo Fagundes and Luciano Castán, has been extremely difficult to break down, particularly at home. Londrina's away form is particularly concerning – they have been shut out in several road trips and have shown little creativity against organized defenses. If Criciúma can score early and control the tempo, they have every chance of keeping a clean sheet. The odds of 2.40 represent good value for a bet that combines Criciúma's defensive strength with Londrina's well-documented struggles in the final third. This selection aligns perfectly with our prediction of a 1-0 home victory.
Odds: 2.10
Criciúma's top scorer with 10 goals this season, Diego Gonçalves is in the form of his life and represents an excellent anytime goalscorer bet at 2.10. The forward has shown remarkable consistency in front of goal, converting chances with a clinical efficiency that has made him one of the most dangerous strikers in Serie B. Against a Londrina defense that has conceded 20 goals in 11 matches and looks short on confidence, Gonçalves will fancy his chances of finding the net. His movement off the ball and ability to find space in the box make him a constant threat, and with Jhonata Robert and Nicolas providing quality service from wide areas, the chances are likely to fall his way. At 2.10, this is a solid value play for a player who has found the net in the majority of Criciúma's matches this season.
Odds: 6.50
Our final score prediction of 1-0 to Criciúma is supported by multiple factors. The hosts' recent form has seen them involved in tight, low-scoring affairs – four of their last five matches have produced under 2.5 goals. Their defensive solidity (0.8 goals conceded per game in the last five) suggests they are unlikely to concede multiple goals, particularly against a Londrina attack that has struggled all season. Londrina's away form and defensive vulnerabilities make it likely that Criciúma will create chances, but their recent profligacy in front of goal (just 6 goals in 5 matches) suggests they may not run up a cricket score. A single goal, likely from Diego Gonçalves or Nicolas, combined with a disciplined defensive performance, could be enough to secure all three points. At 6.50, the correct score 1-0 offers attractive returns for a scenario that aligns closely with the statistical trends of both teams.
📊 Final Score Prediction
Match Analysis
Our prediction of a 1-0 victory for Criciúma is grounded in a comprehensive analysis of both teams' form, tactical setups, and historical performance. The hosts enter this fixture as clear favorites, buoyed by an unbeaten run of five matches and a defensive record that ranks among the best in Serie B. Under Eduardo Baptista, Criciúma have developed into a tactically disciplined side that controls games through patient possession and defensive organization. Their ability to grind out results – evidenced by four draws in their last five matches – demonstrates a maturity and resilience that will serve them well against a struggling Londrina side. The Heriberto Hülse has been a fortress this season, with Criciúma picking up the majority of their points on home soil, and the passionate support of the local fans will create an intimidating atmosphere for the visiting team.
Londrina's predicament is stark. With just 8 points from 11 matches and a goal difference of -11, they are firmly entrenched in the relegation zone and show few signs of an immediate turnaround. The appointment of Rogério Micale has yet to yield the desired results, and the team's defensive record – 20 goals conceded in 11 games – is a major concern. Away from home, Londrina have been particularly poor, suffering heavy defeats and failing to impose themselves on opponents. Their attack, overly reliant on Iago Teles' individual brilliance, has lacked the cohesion and creativity required to break down organized defenses. Against Criciúma's well-drilled backline, led by the outstanding Rodrigo Fagundes, Londrina will struggle to create clear-cut chances. We anticipate Criciúma controlling possession and territory, with Diego Gonçalves or Nicolas eventually breaking the deadlock in the second half. Londrina may have a few moments on the counter-attack through Teles, but Criciúma's defensive discipline should see them maintain their advantage and secure a hard-fought 1-0 victory that keeps their promotion hopes alive while plunging Londrina deeper into crisis.
Key Insights & Statistics
- Criciúma are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (1 win, 4 draws), conceding just 4 goals at an average of 0.8 per game during this period.
- Londrina have won only 1 of their last 5 matches, losing the other 4 while conceding 11 goals at an alarming 2.2 per game average.
- Criciúma's home form has been a key factor in their campaign, with the Heriberto Hülse proving a difficult venue for visiting teams.
- Diego Gonçalves leads Criciúma's scoring with 10 goals this season, making him one of the most prolific strikers in Serie B.
- Iago Teles is Londrina's top scorer with 8 goals, but the team has only managed 9 goals in total across 11 matches.
- Criciúma have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches, while Londrina have failed to score in 5 of their 11 league games.
- The head-to-head record heavily favors Criciúma: 8 wins, 2 defeats, and 6 draws from 16 meetings.
- Criciúma's defensive duo of Rodrigo Fagundes (rating 7.42) and Luciano Castán have formed one of the most reliable partnerships in the division.
- Londrina sit in 18th place with 8 points from 11 matches, just above the relegation zone on goal difference.
- Criciúma are in 9th position with 14 points from 10 matches, 3 points behind the playoff places.
- Four of Criciúma's last five matches have produced under 2.5 goals, indicating a trend towards tighter, more controlled games.
- Londrina have conceded 20 goals this season, the second-worst defensive record in Serie B behind América Mineiro.
- Jhonata Robert has provided 5 assists for Criciúma, making him the team's chief creator and a key influence in attacking areas.
- The average goals per game in head-to-head meetings between these sides is 2.38, though recent form suggests a lower-scoring affair.
- Criciúma manager Eduardo Baptista boasts a 45% win rate (1.67 PPG) across 42 matches, demonstrating consistent performance.
Conclusion
This Brasileirão Série B encounter between Criciúma and Londrina EC represents a classic mismatch on paper, with the well-organized, in-form hosts facing a struggling visitor desperately trying to arrest a alarming slide towards the relegation zone. Criciúma's campaign has been characterized by defensive excellence, tactical discipline, and the individual brilliance of players like Diego Gonçalves and Jhonata Robert. Under Eduardo Baptista, they have developed a clear identity and a winning mentality that makes them formidable opponents, particularly at the Estádio Heriberto Hülse. Their unbeaten run of five matches, combined with a defensive record that ranks among the division's best, provides the platform for a confident performance against a Londrina side that has looked vulnerable in virtually every department.
For Londrina, the 2026 season has been a harsh reminder of the unforgiving nature of Serie B football. Despite significant squad changes in the off-season, including the acquisitions of Gabriel Lacerda, André Cardoso, and Caio Maia, the team has failed to gel and has been punished repeatedly by more organized opponents. Rogério Micale faces a monumental task in turning around the club's fortunes, and this trip to Criciúma is unlikely to provide the relief they desperately need. The statistics paint a bleak picture: 20 goals conceded in 11 matches, just 9 scored, and a win rate of only 18% across the campaign. Unless Micale can conjure a tactical masterstroke and his key players – particularly Iago Teles – produce performances well above their recent levels, another defeat seems the most probable outcome.
Our prediction of a 1-0 Criciúma victory is founded on the hosts' superior quality, form, and home advantage, combined with Londrina's well-documented struggles away from home and in front of goal. The European odds of 1.69 for a home win reflect the market's confidence in this outcome, and our analysis fully supports this assessment. Criciúma have the defensive organization to nullify Londrina's limited attacking threat, and the individual quality in their forward line to capitalize on the chances that will inevitably arise against a defense that has conceded 20 goals in 11 matches. For bettors, the home win, under 2.5 goals, and correct score 1-0 all represent logical selections based on the available evidence. As the season progresses, Criciúma will hope to convert more of their draws into victories and mount a serious challenge for promotion, while Londrina must find solutions quickly if they are to avoid the drop. This match could be a defining moment in both clubs' seasons – a Criciúma victory would maintain their momentum and keep them in the promotion hunt, while another Londrina defeat would deepen the crisis and increase the pressure on Micale and his players. All signs point to a home win, and we expect Criciúma to deliver a professional, disciplined performance that secures all three points and keeps their 2026 dreams alive.