Burnley vs Wolves: Match Preview, Predictions and Betting Tips
Published on Friday, 22 May 2026 by Steve
Burnley vs Wolverhampton Wanderers
Premier League Prediction & Betting Tips
Match Overview
The 2025-26 Premier League season draws to a close with a basement battle at Turf Moor, where Burnley host Wolverhampton Wanderers in a match that will determine who finishes 19th and who propping up the table in 20th. Both clubs have already been relegated, but pride and the minor consolation of avoiding last place remain on the line. Burnley currently sit 19th with 21 points from 37 matches, while Wolves languish in 20th with 19 points, meaning only a victory for the visitors will see them leapfrog the Clarets.
It has been a deeply disappointing campaign for both sides. Burnley, returning to the top flight after a single season in the Championship, have managed just four wins, nine draws and 24 defeats, conceding 74 goals along the way. Their home form has been particularly alarming — the worst in the division — with only 12 points collected from 18 matches at Turf Moor. Wolves, meanwhile, have spent 272 days rooted to the bottom of the table and boast the worst attacking record in the Premier League with just 26 goals scored all season. They are also one of only two sides in Europe's top-five leagues without a single away victory this term.
Despite the grim context, this fixture offers both sets of players a final opportunity to give their supporters something to cheer before the long summer rebuild begins. Burnley will be desperate to avoid finishing bottom of the Premier League for the first time in their history, while Wolves are seeking their first away win of the entire campaign. The reverse fixture back in October 2025 saw Burnley emerge with a thrilling 3-2 victory at Molineux, and the Clarets will be hoping to complete the double over their Midlands counterparts in what promises to be an emotionally charged afternoon in Lancashire.
Tactical Preview
Formation & Key Matchups
Burnley 4-2-3-1
Interim manager Mike Jackson has predominantly utilised a 4-2-3-1 formation since taking the reins, though results have been difficult to come by. The Clarets have struggled to impose themselves in possession, averaging just 42.6% across their last ten league outings. Their approach has typically involved sitting deep and looking to hit teams on the counter-attack, with Zian Flemming operating as the focal point in attack. The double pivot of Florentino and Lesley Ugochukwu provides defensive cover but has often been overwhelmed against superior opposition. At Turf Moor, Burnley have been slightly more proactive, averaging 1.00 goals per home game compared to 0.67 away, though their defensive record remains porous with 1.80 conceded per match on home soil. The key tactical question is whether Jackson will opt for experience in James Ward-Prowse or stick with the youthful energy of Hannibal Mejbri and Loum Tchaouna in the advanced midfield roles.
Wolverhampton Wanderers 4-2-3-1
Rob Edwards has favoured a 4-2-3-1 system since his appointment, though Wolves have been equally ineffective in executing it. The Midlanders have averaged just 41.8% possession over their last ten matches and have been heavily reliant on transitions rather than sustained build-up play. The midfield duo of João Gomes and André offers industry and defensive diligence, but creativity has been in desperately short supply. Out wide, Mateus Mané and Rodrigo Gomes have shown flashes of individual quality, yet the team has failed to score in 19 of their 37 league matches this season — a damning statistic that underlines their attacking impotence. Away from home, the picture is even bleaker: five points from 18 games, seven goals scored and a staggering 34 conceded. Edwards may be tempted to switch to a back three given Burnley's struggles against packed defences, but with a relatively settled squad, he may stick with the system that earned a point against Fulham last time out.
Critical Vulnerability
Both teams share a critical vulnerability in defensive transitions. Burnley have conceded an average of 2.2 goals per game over their last ten fixtures, often caught out when pressing high and leaving space in behind their full-backs. Wolves, meanwhile, have conceded 1.7 goals per game in the same period and have been particularly susceptible to crosses into the box — a concern given Burnley's willingness to deliver from wide areas through Jaidon Anthony and Lucas Pires. The battle between Burnley's aerial threat from set-pieces and Wolves' inability to defend them effectively could prove decisive. Additionally, both sides have shown a tendency to concede early goals, which could open the game up in a manner neither defence is equipped to handle.
Team News & Squad Status
Burnley 📉
- Jordan Beyer (CB): Ruled out with a thigh injury. The defender has been sidelined for several weeks and will not feature in the final match of the season.
- Josh Cullen (CM): Absent due to a knee injury. The Irish midfielder has been a significant miss in the centre of the park.
- Maxime Estève (CB): Doubtful after being forced off against Arsenal with a tight hamstring. Manager Mike Jackson is awaiting a late fitness test.
- Connor Roberts (RB): Long-term absentee with an Achilles injury, though he played 45 minutes for the U21s last week and may make the squad.
- Zian Flemming (ST): Available and expected to lead the line. The Dutch forward has been Burnley's standout performer with 11 Premier League goals this season.
- James Ward-Prowse (CM): Pushing for a start after being left out against Arsenal. His set-piece delivery could be crucial.
Wolverhampton Wanderers 📉
- Sam Johnstone (GK): Out with a shoulder injury. The England international has been sidelined for the closing weeks of the campaign.
- Matt Doherty (RB): Ruled out with a muscle injury. The vice-captain will miss the final match of the season.
- Leon Chiwome (ST): Absent with a knee injury. The young striker has been unavailable for several weeks.
- Enso González (LW): Sidelined with a knee injury. The Paraguayan winger will not feature at Turf Moor.
- João Gomes (CM): Expected to start despite his impending summer transfer to Atlético Madrid. The Brazilian has been a key figure in midfield.
- André (DM): Available after signing a new long-term contract. The Brazilian anchor will start in the double pivot.
- Mateus Mané (AM): Confirmed to be staying at Wolves next season despite interest from other clubs. The teenager has been one of the few bright sparks.
Predicted Lineups
| Burnley 4-2-3-1 | Wolverhampton Wanderers 4-2-3-1 |
|---|---|
| Martin Dúbravka (GK) | José Sá (GK) |
| Kyle Walker (RB) | Yerson Mosquera (CB) |
| Axel Tuanzebe (CB) | Ladislav Krejčí (CB) |
| Maxime Estève (CB) | Santiago Bueno (CB) |
| Lucas Pires (LB) | David Møller Wolfe (LB) |
| Florentino (DM) | João Gomes (CM) |
| Lesley Ugochukwu (DM) | André (DM) |
| Loum Tchaouna (RW) | Rodrigo Gomes (RW) |
| Hannibal Mejbri (CAM) | Mateus Mané (CAM) |
| Jaidon Anthony (LW) | Hwang Hee-chan (LW) |
| Zian Flemming (ST) | Adam Armstrong (ST) |
Head-to-Head Record
Burnley and Wolverhampton Wanderers have enjoyed a competitive rivalry over the years, with the Clarets holding a slight edge in recent Premier League encounters. The two sides have met 17 times in the Premier League era, with Burnley winning seven, Wolves three, and seven matches ending in draws. At Turf Moor, the Clarets have been particularly strong, losing just one of the last five top-flight meetings between the two clubs on home soil. The most recent encounter at this venue ended in a 1-1 draw in April 2024, while Burnley claimed a 1-0 victory here in April 2022.
The reverse fixture this season provided one of the more entertaining encounters between the two sides, with Burnley running out 3-2 winners at Molineux in October 2025. That victory was one of only four league wins for the Clarets this campaign and demonstrated their ability to hurt Wolves on the counter-attack. Wolves' only previous Premier League victory at Turf Moor came way back in the 2009-10 season, when Mick McCarthy's side secured a 2-1 win courtesy of goals from Matt Jarvis and Adlene Guedioura. Given the current form of both teams, another tight contest is expected, though Burnley's superior head-to-head record at this venue will give them confidence.
Key Players Comparison
🔥 Zian Flemming
Burnley | Forward | 11 Goals
The Dutch striker has been the Clarets' one consistent bright spot in a dismal season. Flemming has found the net 11 times in the Premier League and will be desperate to add to his tally in what could be his final appearance for the club. His movement off the ball and ability to find space in the box make him the primary threat.
⚡ Mateus Mané
Wolves | Attacking Midfielder | 3 Goals
The teenage Portuguese midfielder has been one of the few positives in Wolves' relegation season. Mané has scored three goals and provided a constant source of creativity in an otherwise blunt attack. His dribbling ability and eye for a pass could unlock Burnley's fragile defence.
🎯 Jaidon Anthony
Burnley | Left Winger | 8 Goals
The former Bournemouth winger has chipped in with eight goals this season and offers genuine width and pace on the left flank. His delivery from wide areas and willingness to take on defenders make him a key outlet for Burnley's counter-attacking approach.
🛡️ André
Wolves | Defensive Midfielder | 1 Goal
The Brazilian anchor has just signed a new long-term contract and will be tasked with shielding Wolves' vulnerable back four. His ability to break up play and distribute efficiently will be crucial if the visitors are to control the midfield battle.
The individual matchups across the pitch will likely determine the outcome of this relegation scrap. In attack, Zian Flemming's predatory instincts against Santiago Bueno's physical defending will be a fascinating duel — the Uruguayan centre-back has scored three goals himself this season but has also been prone to positional errors. Out wide, the battle between Jaidon Anthony and David Møller Wolfe could prove decisive; the Norwegian full-back has been solid defensively but lacks pace, which Anthony will look to exploit. In midfield, the contest between Hannibal Mejbri and Mateus Mané pits two young, technically gifted players against each other, with both capable of producing moments of magic in an otherwise drab season. Ultimately, whichever side can get their key creative players on the ball in dangerous areas is likely to prevail.
The Managers
Mike Jackson (Burnley)
The former Burnley defender has been in interim charge since the club's relegation was confirmed in April, stepping into the breach following the departure of the previous managerial regime. Jackson has struggled to turn the tide, with the Clarets winning just one of his eight matches in charge. His preferred 4-2-3-1 system has shown glimpses of organisation, particularly in the narrow 1-0 defeat to Arsenal last time out, but a chronic lack of goalscoring threat has undermined any defensive improvements. Jackson has remained defiant in his press conferences, insisting that the players are still fighting for pride and determined to avoid the ignominy of finishing bottom.
Looking ahead to the summer, Jackson is not expected to remain in the hot seat, with Steven Gerrard reportedly the favourite to take over ahead of the Championship campaign. For now, Jackson's focus is solely on ensuring Burnley sign off with a performance that gives the Turf Moor faithful something positive to take into the off-season. He has spoken about the importance of "leaving the shirt in a better place" and will demand maximum effort from his squad in this final outing.
Rob Edwards (Wolves)
Rob Edwards was appointed as Wolves' head coach in October 2025 with the unenviable task of trying to salvage a campaign that had already gone disastrously wrong. The former Watford and Luton boss has managed to steady the ship to a degree, picking up 17 points from his 27 matches in charge, including notable victories over West Ham United, Aston Villa and Liverpool. However, the damage had already been done during a wretched start that saw Wolves collect just two points from their opening 11 fixtures. Edwards has favoured a pragmatic approach, prioritising defensive organisation over attacking flair, though this has done little to address the team's chronic goalscoring issues.
Edwards faces a massive rebuild job this summer as Wolves prepare for life in the Championship. Key decisions will need to be made regarding the futures of several players, including the departing João Gomes, while the club will need to invest wisely to ensure an immediate return to the top flight. For Sunday's match, Edwards has called for his players to show "professionalism and pride" and finish the campaign with a performance that gives the travelling supporters something to cheer. A victory would see Wolves leapfrog Burnley into 19th place, a minor consolation but one that would at least allow Edwards to claim some progress since his arrival.
Betting Predictions & Tips
Odds: 2.43 (European)
Burnley have the superior head-to-head record at Turf Moor and will be motivated to avoid finishing bottom of the table. Wolves have failed to win a single away game all season and have scored just seven goals on the road. The Clarets' home advantage, combined with Wolves' abysmal travelling record, makes the home win the most logical selection. Burnley also won the reverse fixture 3-2 earlier this season, giving them a psychological edge.
Odds: 2.10 (European)
Both teams have struggled for goals throughout the campaign, with Wolves boasting the worst attacking record in the division (26 goals in 37 games) and Burnley averaging just 1.00 goals per home match. Five of the last six meetings between these two sides have produced fewer than three goals, and with little but pride at stake, a cagey affair is anticipated. The Under 2.5 Goals line has landed in 54% of Wolves' matches this season.
Odds: 1.58 (European)
Wolves have failed to score in 19 of their 37 Premier League matches this season, while Burnley have kept a clean sheet in four of their last ten home games against bottom-half opposition. With both sides likely to adopt cautious approaches and neither possessing prolific strikers, the probability of at least one team drawing a blank is high. This market offers excellent value given the attacking deficiencies on display.
Odds: 2.35 (European)
The Dutch forward has been Burnley's most reliable source of goals this season with 11 Premier League strikes. He has scored in three of his last five home appearances and will be the focal point of everything the Clarets do in attack. Against a Wolves defence that has conceded 67 goals this campaign, Flemming should get chances to add to his tally.
Odds: 9.50 (European)
While we anticipate a low-scoring affair, the 2-1 correct score offers attractive odds for those seeking a higher-risk, higher-reward wager. Burnley have enough quality in wide areas through Anthony and Tchaouna to create chances, while Wolves may find some joy on the counter through Mané and Hwang. A narrow home victory with both teams scoring represents a plausible outcome at generous odds.
📊 Final Score Prediction
Match Analysis
We predict a narrow 2-1 victory for Burnley in what is likely to be a scrappy, emotionally charged affair at Turf Moor. The Clarets have the advantage of playing on home soil, where they have at least shown some semblance of fight in recent weeks, pushing Arsenal all the way in a 1-0 defeat. Zian Flemming's predatory instincts should see him get on the scoresheet, while Jaidon Anthony's pace and delivery from the left could create the second goal. Wolves, for all their struggles, have shown resilience under Rob Edwards and may find a consolation through Mateus Mané or a set-piece, but their chronic inability to win away from home — zero victories in 18 attempts — is impossible to ignore.
The tactical battle will likely be decided in midfield, where Burnley's double pivot of Florentino and Ugochukwu should have the physical edge over Wolves' pairing of João Gomes and André. If Burnley can control the tempo and avoid the early defensive lapses that have plagued them all season, they have enough quality in the final third to see off a Wolves side that has scored just seven away goals all campaign. The predicted 2-1 scoreline reflects Burnley's slight superiority in key areas while acknowledging that Wolves, fighting to avoid the wooden spoon, will not go down without a fight.
Key Insights & Statistics
- Burnley have won seven of the last ten Premier League meetings between these two sides at Turf Moor, losing just once.
- Wolves are one of only two teams in Europe's top-five leagues without a single away victory this season (D5, L13).
- The reverse fixture in October 2025 ended 3-2 to Burnley, with Zian Flemming scoring twice.
- Wolves have the worst attacking record in the Premier League this season with just 26 goals in 37 matches (0.70 per game).
- Burnley have failed to win any of their last 14 Premier League home games (D5, L9) but have drawn five of those.
- Only Wolves (19) have failed to score in more Premier League games than Burnley (14) this term.
- Wolves have conceded 67 goals this season, the second-worst defensive record in the division.
- Burnley's matches have averaged a league-high 1.43 first-half goals this campaign, suggesting early action is likely.
- João Gomes is playing his final match for Wolves before a summer move to Atlético Madrid.
- Both teams have already been relegated, with Burnley in 19th (21 points) and Wolves in 20th (19 points).
Conclusion
Sunday's clash at Turf Moor represents the final chapter of a deeply disappointing Premier League campaign for both Burnley and Wolverhampton Wanderers. While neither side can alter their fate of relegation to the Championship, there remains sufficient motivation to avoid the ignominy of finishing bottom of the pile. Burnley, with home advantage and a superior head-to-head record at this venue, enter the match as narrow favourites, and their slightly more potent attack — led by the prolific Zian Flemming — gives them the edge in what promises to be a tight, nervy encounter.
Wolves have shown flashes of improvement under Rob Edwards, particularly in their recent draws against Sunderland and Fulham, but their abysmal away record and chronic goalscoring issues make it difficult to back them with any confidence. The departure of João Gomes this summer will leave a significant hole in their midfield, and the rebuild job facing Edwards is substantial. A victory here would at least allow them to finish 19th rather than 20th, but the statistics suggest they will struggle to break down a Burnley side that has been marginally more competitive in recent weeks.
Ultimately, we anticipate a narrow 2-1 home victory for Burnley, with Zian Flemming and Jaidon Anthony providing the goals for the Clarets. Wolves may find a consolation through one of their younger attacking talents, but their inability to win on the road all season is a trend that is unlikely to be bucked in this final outing. For both sets of supporters, the match offers one last opportunity to support their team in the top flight before the long, hard road back begins in August. Whichever way the result goes, the 2025-26 season will be one that both clubs will be desperate to forget.