Will SSD prices drop during the first part of next year?

Will SSD prices drop during the first part of next year?
As major manufacturers ramp up 3D NAND production, flash memory prices are set to decline due to oversupply. This will lead to a drop in prices for solid state drives, as well as other types of NAND-based storage devices. TrendForce analysts expect client and server SSD prices to drop another 10-15% from Q4 2020 over the course of the next quarter.

There are six major 3D NAND manufacturers, as well as other companies that make memories mainly for local needs. These companies regularly introduce new 3D NAND process technologies that increase the number of layers and / or make new memory architectures (e.g., QLC, PLC) more viable for certain applications. As a result, the 3D NAND offering grows as a result of both technological advancements and new capabilities.

TrendForce analysts estimate that client SSDs currently account for 31% of 3D NAND business drives. occupy 20% and eMMC / UFS storage devices 41%, while only 8% of 3D NAND is sold as raw wafer.

TrendForce researchers say that in the first quarter of 2021 four manufacturers of 3D NANDs - Intel, Samsung, SK Hynix and YMTC - plan to expand their production, stimulating competition and causing a 10% -15% quarterly drop in the average 3D NAND selling price in the first quarter of 2021.

Traditionally, PC manufacturers cut computer production in the first quarter due to a seasonal downturn. As a result, the demand for components, such as memory and SSDs, decreases, as do their prices. But there are two other factors that will bring them down in the first quarter of next year, according to TrendForce.

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First, PC manufacturers already have plenty of SSDs in stock. Second, 3D NAND 3D suppliers actively send samples of their 1xx layer 3D NAND 3D NANDs to SSD manufacturers, thus energetically supporting the launch of new drives.

Computer demand is high and manufacturers PCs still have a lot of backorders, so their current inventory will likely be consumed to meet current demand. However, the new 1xx-layer 3D NAND-based drives will be even cheaper than existing ones.

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